Measuring Consumer Uncertainty about Future Inflation

Visualizing uncertainty about the future.

We are all faced with uncertainty about the future, but we can get the measure of some uncertainties in terms of probabilities. Probabilities are notoriously difficult to communicate effectively to lay audiences, and in this review we examine current practice for communicating uncertainties visually, using examples drawn from sport, weather, climate, health, economics, and politics. Despite the...

Measuring Uncertainty about Long-Run Predictions

Long-run forecasts of economic variables play an important role in policy, planning, and portfolio decisions. We consider forecasts of the long-horizon average of a scalar variable, typically the growth rate of an economic variable. The main contribution is the construction of prediction sets with asymptotic coverage over a wide range of data generating processes, allowing for stochastically tr...

The Relation Between Inflation and Inflation Uncertainty In Iran

Reflecting Uncertainty about Economic Theory when Estimating Consumer Demand

Economic theory provides a great deal of information about demand models. Specifically, theory can dictate many relationships that expenditure and price elasticities should fulfill. Unfortunately, analysts cannot be certain whether these relationships will hold exactly. Many analysts perform hypothesis tests to determine if the theory is correct. If the theory is accepted then the relationships...

Inflation, Inflation Uncertainty and Output in Tunisia

Reply : We think that the Tunisian case is also interesting for a broad audience. Tunisia has made important progress over the last decade toward establishing a sound bank intermediation, deepening its financial market, mobilizing domestic financing, and using indirect market-based monetary policy instruments. Monetary policy is useful to obtain a stable macroeconomic environment in favor of a ...